After the Conventions: Who Do You Think Will Win, Obama or Romney?

Now that the Democratic and Republican delegates have officially chosen their nominees, Patch wants to know: Who are you betting on?

With President Barack Obama's acceptance speech in Charlotte Thursday night, Republicans and Democrats have formally chosen their nominees for the 2012 presidential election. Let the real race begin.

A lot can change between now and Nov. 6: Gaffes, scandals or even major international news events could shift the dynamics of the campaign.

The latest Gallup Polls show registered voters preferring Obama to Mitt Romney by just one percentage point, 47 percent to 46 percent. A USA Today/Gallup poll taken just before the party conventions found American voters think Obama is more likeable, but trust Romney more to handle the economy.

Feel like putting some real money on the election? Before Obama's big speech Thursday night, Ladbrokes reckoned the odds of an Obama victory at 4-11 and a Romney win at 2-1. The odds of a tie in the Electoral College are 100-1, according to the venerable betting house. Those, by the way, are the same chances that the London bookmakers are giving a Ron Paul presidential victory in 2016. 

Patch wants to know: Regardless of who you support for President, who do you think will actually claim victory in November?

Patrick J. McNamara September 21, 2012 at 04:48 PM
We can all pontificate about who will win, but in California, our presidential votes are a foregone conclusion. What mystifies me is why the Obama campaign is spending money on attack ads here in California. Why are they worried about how California will vote? Our 55 electoral votes are always taken for granted by the Democrats. What does the Obama internal polling operation know that we don't? Let's remember, at this stage of the campaign in 1980, Carter was ahead of Reagan by 9 points. At this stage, Dukakis was ahead of GHW Bush by 17 points! Obama and Romney are tied at 47% each (interesting percentage, eh?). The "undecided" are 6%. Historically, in incumbent presidential elections, the "undecided" are typically the non-political junkies who have in fact viscerally decided not to support the incumbent. They almost always enter the booth and vote against the incumbent. We can all express our hopes and dreams and favorite bumper stickers here, but to be perfectly honest, if I had to bet my own money on the outcome, I would agree with Michael Moore that Mitt Romney will win.
Patrick J. McNamara September 21, 2012 at 05:14 PM
Robin, I thought Don gave a fairly concise list above. There is a space limit on posts here on Patch, you know. Partisan blinders and loyalties aside, both candidates are perfectly likable men, but this election is not about likability. It is about fundamental questions of the role of government in our lives. H.L.Mencken once said that what the people want is security, not liberty. If he was right, then Obama will win. If not, Romney will win. All the media polling id fluff and in some cases naked attempts to convey a sense of inevitability for one candidate. Nothing is inevitable, and no one will be dissuaded from showing up on November 6th. See you at the polls everyone! PS- My favorite Mencken quote: "Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard."
Patrick J. McNamara September 21, 2012 at 05:20 PM
Hey Hampton, as a veteran, I resent the notion that we veterans vote only according to our own selfish interests. Many of my fellow veterans and I have absolutely no qualms about sacrificing for the good of the nation. That does not make us losers, my friend.
Richard Cabral September 21, 2012 at 09:19 PM
The President will be re-elected
kishorekumar October 04, 2012 at 08:03 AM
Obama must win. kishorekumar


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